Monday, February 26, 2007

The Oscars Aftermath: I'm a Moron

If you read through my Oscar predictions and analysis, one thing must swiftly be clear: I don't have a clue what I'm talking about.

At least in terms of predicting, I wreathed myself in no particular glory. Out of the 21 categories that I attempted to guess, I got exactly 11 right. That means I did better than an untrained chimp picking at random, but not quite as well as a trained chimp that watched nearly every nominated film beforehand.

I made mistakes that everybody made: Look, I can't feel bad about thinking "Children of Men" was going to win cinematography. It deserved to win. All signs pointed to it winning. But "Pan's Labyrinth" won and I'm OK about that. And with all those songs from "Dreamgirls" nominated, surely *one* of 'em had to win, right? Right?

I made mistakes that nobody made: Look, I knew Eddie Murphy wasn't going to win best supporting actor. But if I'd just guessed Alan Arkin, I'd have been like everybody else guessing Alan Arkin. Nobody picking Alan Arkin deserves to say they picked an upset today. But if Jackie Earle Haley had actually won? I'd have gone out on a limb. I stand by that.

I made mistakes and hoped I was wrong: Look, I suspected that the editing award and the best picture award were going to line up. I wanted "The Departed" to win. I guessed "Babel" was going to win, because the Academy hates me. It turns out that the Academy didn't hate me quite as much as I feared.

The choice that made me happiest? "The Departed" for best picture, to be sure. Mostly, I was just glad with the things that didn't win.

The choice[s] that annoyed me most? I've said my piece on "Little Miss Sunshine" and its script. That was still less silly than the Melissa Etheridge song from "An Inconvenient Truth" winning. We get it: If the Academy got to vote for president last night, Al Gore would have won.

Just to recap, here are my picks, with the actual winners. I put an asterix next to the ones I got wrong, just for easier mockability. I could run screaming from my shame or embrace my own mediocrity.

The 79th Annual Academy Awards:

*Sound Editing: "Blood Diamond" [Winner: "Letters from Iwo Jima"]
Sound Mixing: "Dreamgirls" [Winner: "Dreamgirls"]
Special Effects: "Pirates of the Caribbean 2" [Winner: "Pirates 2"]
Make-up: "Pan's Labyrinth" [Winner: "Pan's Labyrinth"]
Score: "Babel" [Winner: "Babel"]
*Song: "Listen," "Dreamgirls" [Winner: An Inconvenient Truth"]
*Art Direction: "Dreamgirls" [Winner: "Pan's Labyrinth"]
*Costumes: "Dreamgirls" [Winner: "Marie Antoinette"]
*Cinematography: "Children of Men" [Winner: "Pan's Labyrinth"]
*Editing: "Babel" [Winner: "The Departed"]
*Animated: "Cars" [Winner: "Happy Feet"]
*Foreign: "Pan's Labyrinth" [Winner: "The Lives of Others"]
Documentary: "An Inconvenient Truth" [Winner: "An Inconvienent Truth"]
Adapted Script: "The Departed" [Winner: "The Departed"]
Original Screenplay: "Little Miss Sunshine" [Winner: "Little Miss Sunshine"]
*Supporting Actor: Jackie Earle Haley [Winner: Alan Arkin]
Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson [Winner: Jennifer Hudson]
Actress: Helen Mirren [Winner: Helen Mirren]
Actor: Forest Whitaker [Winner: Forest Whitaker]
Director: Martin Scorsese [Winner: Martin Scorese]
*Picture: "Babel" [Winner: "The Departed"]


  1. Anonymous6:34 PM

    I'm glad I went with my picks instead of yours in my Oscar pool, because I ended up getting 16 out of 24 right and winning (for once)! It was pretty much the only good thing to come out of the night because my God, was that telecast LONG and BORING. If I never see another film clip montage, I will die a happy woman.

    Also, I finally saw Half Nelson this weekend and was blown away by Gosling's performance. I knew he wasn't going to win, but I'm pretty sure he'll get another shot at Oscar in the future. For my money, there aren't two more exciting actors under 30 than Gosling and Joseph Gordon-Levitt.

  2. There's a recent why I don't lay money on sporting events or on prop bets or box office or anything. I'm much better at analysis than prediction. Tis my curse.

    I think I could have got 16 for 24 with a little more common sense. That's like saying that I could have made the NBA if I weren't 6'1", Jewish and not particularly gifted at basketball...